As global demand for lithium continues to surge, driven by the rise of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, the lithium refining landscape is undergoing dramatic transformation. New technologies, shifting supply chains, and geopolitical changes are reshaping the industry.

1. Global Demand Growth & Supply Pressures

• In 2024, global lithium consumption reached approximately 220,000 tonnes, rising 29% from 2023, while overall production increased by 18%.

• Despite rapid demand growth, lithium prices have dropped over 80% due to oversupply, particularly from China.

• The IEA projects continued momentum in lithium demand through 2030 and beyond, with demand growing faster than any other critical mineral.

2. Geographic Concentration & Risk of Supply Bottlenecks

• China accounts for roughly 75–86% of global refining capacity, creating significant supply chain dependencies.

• Major producers like Albemarle and Rio Tinto are navigating cost pressures and reconsidering expansions in Western markets, reflecting economic constraints in reducing reliance on China.

3. Innovation—From Direct Extraction to AI Optimization

• ElectraLith, backed by Rio Tinto, has raised $17M to develop water- and chemical-free direct lithium extraction (DLE-R) using electrodialysis—a step toward diversifying refining away from China.

• Recent academic breakthroughs use artificial intelligence to optimize lithium carbonate production via CO₂-based softening—improving carbon efficiency and reducing emissions.

• Reinforcement learning techniques are enhancing refinery planning and operation optimization across global processing plants.

4. India’s Strategic Response: Building Domestic Refining Infrastructure

• India currently imports nearly 100% of its critical lithium supply, posing strategic vulnerabilities in its clean energy transition.

• The domestic lithium market nearly hit USD 0.88 B in 2024 and is projected to grow 16–22% annually, reaching multi-billion-dollar scale by 2030.

5. Vardhaan Lithium at the Forefront of India’s Refining Evolution

• Vardhaan Lithium (I) Pvt. Ltd. is developing India’s first integrated lithium refinery and lithium-ion battery production hub in Nagpur, with 60,000 tonnes/year refining capacity and 20 GWh/year battery output.

• By anchoring technology partnerships—with U.S. and European firms—and integrating mineral sourcing through its Zimbabwe co-investments, Vardhaan is creating a vertically integrated ecosystem that bridges local refining and cell production.

• This vertically integrated model enables India to reduce import dependency and build long-term resilience in its EV and renewable energy supply chain.

Future Outlook: Navigating a Competitive Global Landscape

• With global refining consolidated in a handful of players, India’s vision hinges on building capacity and capability through projects like Vardhaan’s.

• As global prices remain under pressure and new entrants innovate, refining efficiency and resilience are becoming strategic differentiators.

• Government policies—such as PLI for ACC batteries and critical mineral classification—are playing an enabling role in supporting India’s ambitions.